http://CBAClientEngagement.com/blog/categoryname_market-update/sort_entrydatetime-desc/ The Coldwell Banker Advantage Spring 2024 Housing Market Forecast is available now! Click here for a look back on 2023 in both the Triad and Triangle and get some insights on the outlook of 2024!   http://CBAClientEngagement.com/blog/1318/2024-housing-market-forecast/ Tue, 13 Feb 2024 01:59:58 -0500 I’ve been trying to come up with a good word to describe the Triangle Region housing market. I keep coming back to “booming.” And while I obviously don’t want to over-hype what is occurring, I think you would agree when looking at the stats that we are booming, especially this fall.The fall has historically been a second market where activity is far below the fast pace of the spring buying season. But September and October have seen dramatic increases in sales over the previous year. September saw a jump of 12.5% followed by 10.3% in October compared to last September and October, respectively.Combined this fall, the Triangle Region had a record 6,709 homes sold compared to 6,027 in 2018 and 6,307 in 2017.The double-digit percentage increases are huge compared to the spring - March was up 1.4% over last year, while April (2.5%), May (5.7%) and June (8.6%).We are trending towards the strongest year on record more than doubling the sales of 2011, the last year prior to the Recession recovery. Here is a look at the past decade of Triangle home sales through OctoberYearSales through October200918,363201017,853201116,735201220,082201325,056201426,240201528,763201631,468201733,263201833,626201934,761Along with the rise in sales, we are also seeing sustained increases in home prices. The October median price – the middle of the 3,650 homes sold in October – was $280,000. This was only the fifth time ever that the $280,000 mark was reached, all in 2019.October saw a rise of 7.7% over last October in median prices as we jumped from $260,000. This was the highest increase of any month this past year.The other very, very good sign was that 4,111 homes came on the market in October, up 11.1% from a year ago. We need more listings because our total inventory remains historically low with just 8,616 homes for sale. This equates to a supply of just 2.5 months, down 10.7% from a year ago. Essentially, we remain in a major supply vs. demand imbalance which is driving home prices higher.The homes that sold in October stayed on the market for 32 days, the same as last year, but up from the June 2019 low of 25 days. Interestingly, during the recession we saw October results of 110 days in 2010, 126 in 2011 and 117 in 2012.The Triangle Region is following a very similar pattern to the U.S. according to the recently released Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors. U.S. sales in October were up 4.6% compared to last year, while the median price jumped 6.2% to $270,900.Just as is occurring in the Triangle Region, the price rise is being impacted by a scarcity of listings. Nationally, there is just a 3.9-month supply of homes – 1.77 million in total – which is down 4.3% from a year ago.Additionally, 46% of those homes which sold in October came off the market in 30 days or less.Interestingly, the South fared the best of all U.S. regions with sales up 7.8% in October while prices were up 6.0% to a median price of $234,900.You will see from the below chart how we compared to the overall U.S.Oct. SalesOct. Median PriceDays on MarketMonth SupplyU.S.5.46/ 4.6 (annualized sales number)$270,900/ 6.2%363.9Triangle Region3,449/ 10.3%$280,000/ 7.7%322.5Durham County387/-1.0%$273,747/ 11.3%242.0Johnston County435/ 5.6%$234,900/ 1.3282.0Orange County154/ 42.6%$302,000/-4.8%332.6Wake County1,826/ 16.5%$319,233/ 3.9%292.3I love writing this update to give buyers and sellers a sense of what is occurring in our real estate market. Our agents can give you even more information and drill down with data that is most important to you.I encourage anyone who has questions to reach out to me at rgregory@cbadvantage.com or any of our 350 Triangle Coldwell Banker Advantage agents and we can help.I hope you are enjoying these articles.  http://CBAClientEngagement.com/blog/884/triangle-review:-booming-housing-market!/ Tue, 26 Nov 2019 01:57:34 -0500 Here we are, two months left in the year. It’s been an incredibly “fast” year in real estate and home sales because the Triangle Region remains one of the hottest and tightest in the nation.It’s been amazing to write this column each month and compare/contrast what is happening nationally vs. locally. We truly are unique and stronger in real estate than most of the nation.September was no exception. While the National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently reported that September home sales rose 3.9% over last September, the Triangle Region blew that number away. We sold 3,260 homes in September, a whopping 12.5% higher number than a year prior.I believe what is fueling this continued buying spree goes further than the population growth, affordability, climate and all of the other wonderful things about our region. I believe the unexpected drop in mortgage interest rates is having an impact. While most experts predicted rates would rise in 2019 into the low 5%s, the opposite occurred. We have instead dropped into the 3% ranges and currently stand at 3.75% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. While I’m going to simplify the costs in this chart, these lower rates are allowing so many to enter the market, buy “more house for the money” and even “move up”:Mortgage AmountSeptember 2018 Monthly PaymentSeptember 2019 Monthly PaymentDifference PER Month for 30 years$200,000$1,043$926$117$250,000$1,304$1,158$146$300,000$1,565$1,389$176$350,000$1,826$1,621$205$400,000$2,087$1,852$235$450,000$2,347$2,084$263$500,000$2,608$2,316$292Let’s break this down a bit more:First time buyers: Obviously, the lower the monthly payment over the 30 years, the better for you. Renters can now buy a home for below, at or slightly above their monthly rent payments depending the community you choose. Many will still have to trade lower prices for a longer commute, but they still can now afford the monthly payment. Move Up buyers: Right after the recession, mortgage rates dropped to historically low levels into the very low 3% range. If you bought a home then, or refinanced, you had the lowest monthly payment in history. Most don’t want to give that up. But, as we enter the end of the decade, rates have dropped to near where they once were. As life changed and the need for a larger home, or one closer to work, became necessary, many stuck it out not wanting to give up that low rate from years prior. Now that is not a concern.With that said we also have to realize that prices have also risen here. In September, the Triangle Region was up 5.1% over last year to a median price of $276,000. This mimicked what NAR reported nationally, $272,100, up 5.9% over last September. These higher prices are largely a result of demand (which goes back to lower mortgage rates). While NAR reports that nationally those homes sold in the U.S. in September stayed on the market about 32 days, we showed 30 days here.The good news for us is that inventory, which has been so low and remains problematic, showed a glimmer of improvement.While our supply is still extremely tight at 2.5 months (6 months is considered “balanced”) giving the seller a huge advantage in negotiations, we saw an increase of 18.2% more homes come on the market in September compared to last year. There were 3,876 new listings put on sale in the Triangle in September lifting our overall number to 8,626 which is still exceptionally low.This type of market doesn’t usually allow for “discounts” for the buyer and that is showing itself in what we call the “list to price ratio.” We are seeing homes selling at 98.9% of what they are listed for. That essentially means a home listed at $200,000 home will sell for at least $198,000.To give you a sense of what is happening here vs. the nation, I created this chart:Sales/% change vs last SeptemberPrices% change vs last SeptemberInventory/% change vs last SeptemberTime on MarketU.S. 5.38 million (annual projection)/ 3.9%$272,100/ 5.9%1.83 million/-2.7%32 daysTriangle Region3,260/ 12.5%$276,000/ 5.1%8,626/-7.9%30 daysDurham  County430/ 12.3%$279,900/ 13.9%911/ 13.2%24Johnston County361/ 2.8%$240,000/ 0.6%830/-28.7%28Orange County132/22.2%$285,000/-1.7%423/-13.7%37Wake County1,635/ 11.5%$315,000/ 5.0%4,110/-4.1%26You can see that while we talk about real estate in generalities, it often changes the closer and closer you get to where you live – or want to live.I encourage anyone who has questions to reach out to me at rgregory@cbadvantage.com or any of our 350 Coldwell Banker Advantage agents and let us help.I hope you enjoy the beginnings of the Holiday Season and you are enjoying these articles.Rick Gregory - COOColdwell Banker Advantage  http://CBAClientEngagement.com/blog/880/real-estate-review:-the-year-is-flying-by/ Wed, 30 Oct 2019 05:33:43 -0500 There is so much great information about the Triangle and the surrounding markets that it is hard sometimes to wrap your head around all of it. That’s why I really enjoy writing this monthly column. This month I want to start with one great piece of research that put Raleigh in the nation’s top 5 of “baby chaser” markets. That’s the term Myers Research used in their report, not mine, for the 25% of Baby Boomers who are going to move to be near their grandchildren. While the Charlotte market topped the list, Raleigh was third! This is further evidence showcasing how the population growth of the region, affordability of homes and how our vibrant culture continues to draw in people of all ages which obviously impacts the real estate market.Another great piece of data came in early August from the National Association of Realtors that found that 91% of the major markets it studied around the nation saw year-over-year second quarter home price increases. Durham-Chapel Hill showed an 8.9% gain while Raleigh increased 2.2%. Median home prices (the middle of all homes sold) ended Q2 at $314,300 and $296,900, respectively.It is important to break down the numbers much more to get a solid look at our overall market. Using the July report from Triangle MLS, it’s interesting to see how real estate sales here follow a traditional Spring-into-Summer hot season:Month SalesJanuary: 2,013February: 2,585March: 3,414April: 3,611May: 4,221June: 4,145July: 4,133.As for the year, sales are doing well. In the first six months, we are now up to 24,000+ homes sold, about 500 more than last year and more than 1,000 over the 2017 numbers.Median sales prices have risen region wide by 7.7% since the year began – from $259,800 in January to July’s $280,000. The inventory – number of homes on the market – remains historically low which is the major culprit as to why our prices are increasing. In fact the median price recorded for all April, May, June and July sales have all been above $280,000, the highest recorded number in a month since 2007 reporting.While I previously shared information from the first 6 months of the year, it is also important to look at the July-only numbers and compare to last July.  NAR reports that our median price is just $800 less than the national mark of $280,800 according to its latest Existing Home Sales Report.Interestingly, a real estate industry report by CSS shows that local “showings” through July are at the fourth highest level (570,000+) since 2006.The continued drop of mortgage interest rates that are now averaging around 3.6% for a 30-fixed mortgage is also bringing prospective buyers into the market. While most experts predicted this number would rise in the 5% range in 2019, the opposite has occurred and we are now nearing historical lows again. This is great news for buyers and sellers alike!One sign we also look at is the health of the construction industry to see if new home builds equal demand. Thus far this year there have been 4,091 local building permits issued which is down dramatically from last July’s tally of 4,688 and the lowest since 2015.Here is why this number is a bit problematic. Inventory levels are so tight in the ’Triangle’ that it takes just 26 days for a home to sell. This number is down from 44 days in February. To provide some perspective, July has averaged 75 days since 2007 including a high of 129 in July 2011. Region-wide we have been in the 20s in nine of the last 14 months. Again, we compare almost exactly to what NAR reports for the nation. Inventory levels dropped by 1.6% compared to last July at 1.89 million available homes across the U.S. Homes stayed on the market about 29 days (up from 27) and 51% of all homes sold in 30 days or less.I hope you are enjoying these market columns and I am helping you through the extensive information available.If you have any questions, or want to work with any of our 350 agents, please don’t hesitate to reach out to me at rgregory@cbadvantage.com.Written by Rick Gregory | COO Coldwell Banker Advantage http://CBAClientEngagement.com/blog/875/market-review:-so-much-great-information!/ Wed, 28 Aug 2019 08:52:24 -0500 This article was written by Coldwell Banker Advantage COO Rick Gregory.I guess I have to officially start saying, “ya’all”! Yup, we sold our home in New Jersey and closed on our home in Wake Forest. Now I can focus on the next decision, who do I root for? State, Carolina or Duke?Having been “up North” for almost my entire life, I heard so much about the Research Triangle and, like so many, have been amazed at its growth. So this month, I decided to take a look at what has occurred with the housing market here over the last several years to get a true understanding at how today might be different from yesterday.You will be amazed!Let’s start with a look at year-over-year stats, June 2019 vs. June 2018:Home sales were down 3% from a year ago to 4,145Median prices were up 3.1% from a year ago to $283,530.Days on market is 25 days (same as last year)This is exactly how things have been playing out all year. Our inventory (the number of homes on the market) is so tight that while there are fewer sales, the competition for those homes is driving prices up.This is the same story being seen across the U.S. according to the National Association of Realtors. In fact, we are shockingly almost exactly the same as what is being seen nationally. NAR just reported June’s median price (the middle of all homes sold) was a record $285,700. Sales were off 2.2% in June compared to last year and the days on market is 27 days.But our market has not always been like this.For comparison, let’s go back to 2007. That June, there were 4,006 homes sold (similar to today) but our median price was just $218,000. Those homes stayed on the market for 81 days.The Great Recession then hit and we saw its impact. In 2009, for example, our median price in June plummeted to $186,000 and there were only 2,358 homes sold.  They stayed on the market for 105 days, more than four times today’s figure.Looking at the below chart, I think it is fair to say the region’s housing market emerged from the downturn in 2013 when sales rose by 16%, prices grew and days on market plummeted by about ½. Since then the boom continued. Here is what has occurred in June for the last 10 yearsJune of…SalesDays on MarketMedian Price20102,72499$199,89020112,197118$193,00020122,629114$199,25020133,05265$203,00020143,22261$210,00020153,92754$231,65020164,27143$245,00020174,39429$260,00020184,27425$275,00020194,14525$283,530I know this is a lot of numbers, but I wanted to share one more that stood out from the NAR report. Nationally, 35% of all June homebuyers were first-timers. This is great news. Traditionally, this number has been 40% but dipped to as low as 27% over the last several years. This month’s figure is the highest it has been in recent memory.Recent years have seen potential sellers not want to move for a variety of reasons including a fear of giving up their historically low mortgage rates. Today’s 30-year fixed rates, which have dropped substantially to below 3.8%, are taking that hurdle away.As they “move up,” this is allowing the next generation of homebuyers to come in. But we are also watching another modern phenomenon keeping homes off the market. The older generations have a desire to “Age in Place,” choosing to remain in their homes. Freddie Mac believes this is keeping 1.6 million homes from being on the market. And they may remain that way as Chase Bank recently reported that 52% of Baby Boomers say they will never move from their current home with 88% looking to make improvements to their home.You can now understand why there is so much talk about the importance of the building community creating enough new homes at affordable prices to add to the supply.I hope I have shed some light on what is happening in our region. If you have any questions, or want to talk to any of our 350 agents, please reach out to me at rgregory@cbadvantage.com http://CBAClientEngagement.com/blog/869/the-research-triangle-housing-market-wasn't-always-this-strong!/ Mon, 29 Jul 2019 09:04:48 -0500